STEM: ANO jasně vede, Piráti dotáhli STAN. Spokojeni mohou být STAČILO! i Motoristé

Podle nejnovějšího volebního modelu agentury STEM pro CNN Prima NEWS by se volby do Poslanecké sněmovny staly jasnou záležitostí pro hnutí ANO. Překvapením je, že Piráti dotáhli na čtvrtém místě hnutí STAN. Stejně jako oni mohou být spokojeni i hnutí STAČILO! a Motoristé sobě, kteří potvrzují sněmovní příslušnost.

Strana Andreje Babiše by s podporou 31,3 procenta voličů obsadila 69 křesel a potvrdila tak svou pozici favorita. ANO na rozdíl od jiných politických subjektů dokáže oslovit poměrně vyrovnaně všechny skupiny obyvatel.

Na druhém místě se drží vládní koalice SPOLU, kterou tvoří ODS, KDU-ČSL a TOP 09. Uskupení získalo 20,2 procenta hlasů a 42 mandátů, což znamená velkou ztrátu oproti volbám v roce 2021 – hned 29 křesel.

Třetí místo by obsadila SPD s 12,5 procenta a 26 křesly. Strana Tomia Okamury se po slabších letních měsících vrátila na své tradiční hodnoty a nadále je vnímána jako hlavní sběratel protestních hlasů. Do voleb jde s podporou Trikolory, Svobodných a strany PRO Jindřicha Rajchla.

Výrazně si polepšili Piráti, kteří s 10 procenty poprvé v letošním roce překonali dvojcifernou hranici. Jejich voličské jádro tvoří zejména nejmladší generace. Prakticky stejný výsledek má i hnutí STAN, kterému STEM přisuzuje rovněž 10 procent, což by znamenalo 20 mandátů. U Starostů jde ale o nejslabší čísla od června, což potvrzuje jejich postupně klesající trend.

Do dolní komory by se dostalo i levicové hnutí STAČILO! se 7,4 procenta, jež by obsadilo 13 křesel. Na kandidátkách hnutí figurují kromě KSČM a Sociálních demokratů (SOCDEM) i Česká strana národně sociální (ČSNS), Svobodní demokraté – sdružení nezávislých (SD-SN), Moravané, Komunistická strana Československa (KSČ) a nezávislé osobnosti.

Sněmovní jistotu by měli i Motoristé sobě, kteří posílili na 6 procent a získali by 10 poslanců. Jejich podpora je však podle analytiků značně proměnlivá a úzce navázaná na osobu Filipa Turka.

Naopak hnutí Přísaha se 2,2 procenta zůstává daleko od pětiprocentní hranice a jeho šance na návrat do Sněmovny jsou minimální.

Výzkum probíhal ve třech vlnách od 21. srpna do 9. září mezi více než 1500 respondenty. Do voleb, které se uskuteční 3. a 4. října, zbývají už méně než tři týdny.

(pk)

GRAFIKA – CNN Prima NEWS, ZDROJ – STEM

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